The Aridification of the Great Salt Lake

environmentmental/physical health

Jul 8

Written By David Thompson

By David Thompson

Published Summer 2024

Special thanks to Becca Linford for editing and research contributions.

Viewpoints published by Ballard Brief are not necessarily endorsed by BYU or The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints.

Summary+

Aridification has been one of the primary problems plaguing saline lakes in the last century. While general aridification, or “a transition of the climate and hydrology of a region to drier conditions,” is largely the result of climate change, the aridification of lakes such as the Great Salt Lake is primarily the result of human intervention.¹^,² The State of Utah diverts at least 2.1 million acre-feet, or over 600 billion gallons of water, from entering the Great Salt Lake each year.³ Between 70–82% of Utah’s total diverted water is used for agriculture, especially for irrigation.⁴^,⁵ Scientists estimate that if the rate at which the Great Salt Lake is shrinking is not lowered, the lake will dry up in 5 years.⁶ Even if the rate of aridification is slowed, the consequences of a desiccated Great Salt Lake are severe, including increased respiratory illnesses, harm to pregnant women and children, decreased mental health, and economic downfall. While no single solution will rescue the Great Salt Lake, groups like the Great Salt Lake Strike team are working to provide policymakers with the needed research to create effective solutions.

Key Takeaways+

Great Salt Lake is a saline lake located in Utah, USA. At 1,600 square miles, it is the largest saltwater lake in the Western Hemisphere.⁷^,⁸ Between recreation and industrial business, the Great Salt Lake contributes $1.9 billion to Utah’s economy annually and directly supports over 7,700 jobs, including mining lithium and salt and brine shrimp farming.⁹^,¹⁰
The aridification of Great Salt Lake is primarily the result of people diverting water from rivers that would otherwise replenish the lake.¹¹ While most of the desiccation of Great Salt Lake can be attributed to anthropomorphic causes, climate change has still had a measurable impact on the lake. Current estimates attribute about 9% of Great Salt Lake’s decline to climate change.¹²
Just like the Great Salt Lake, the exposed lakebed of the Aral Sea has become the source of massive toxic dust storms, which likely contribute to increased heart and kidney disease, growth retardation among children, as well as anemia and hypercalciuria.¹³
The Great Salt Lake Strike Team is one organization attempting to bring awareness to the layers of necessary solutions. The purpose of the Great Salt Lake Strike Team is to “provide timely, relevant, and high-quality data and research that help decision-makers make informed decisions about the Great Salt Lake.”¹⁴

Key Terms+

Acre-feet—A unit of volume that is equivalent to 325,851 gallons of water, or the same as an entire football field covered in 1 foot of water.¹⁵

Anthropogenic—Changes in climate affected by humans.¹⁶

Desiccate—The removal of moisture until something is dry, in other words, dehydration.¹⁷

The greenhouse effect—The process that occurs where the sun’s heat hits the earth’s atmosphere during the day and then releases it back into the atmosphere by night. However, because of additional gasses in the atmosphere, more heat is trapped, causing the temperatures in the atmosphere and subsequently on the earth to change.¹⁸

Lake Effect Precipitation—Changes in the temperature of the cold atmosphere around a lake that causes clouds to form and grow. As a result, these clouds precipitate heavily in nearby areas.¹⁹

Salinity—The amount of any type of salt dissolved in a body of water.²⁰

Urban heat island—An urban heat island is a phenomenon that occurs in major cities, resulting in much higher temperatures than surrounding rural and suburban areas.²¹

Watersheds— A region that directs rainfall and snowmelt into creeks, streams, and rivers, ultimately leading to reservoirs, bays, and the ocean.”²²

Wasatch Front— “The Wasatch Front, extending some 105 miles (170 km) north-south from Brigham City to Provo and including Salt Lake City, is the main area of urban and industrial development; more than three-fourths of the state’s total population lives there.”²³

Context

Q: What is Great Salt Lake, and how has it changed?

A: Great Salt Lake is a saline lake located in Utah, USA. At 1,600 square miles, it is the largest saltwater lake in the Western Hemisphere.²⁴^,²⁵ Between recreation and industrial business, Great Salt Lake contributes $1.9 billion to Utah’s economy annually and directly supports over 7700 jobs, including mining lithium and salt and brine shrimp farming.²⁶^,²⁷ Utah’s skiing industry also benefits from Great Salt Lake, specifically through lake effect precipitation, which causes increased precipitation near large lakes. Great Salt Lake also provides critical habitat for migratory birds and waterfowl. Over 10 million birds, representing 338 species, make use of Great Salt Lake.²⁸

The Salt Lake Valley has been home to a terminal saline lake for thousands of years. Terminal lakes have no outlet for water to leave from.²⁹ The predecessor of Great Salt Lake, Lake Bonneville, was a massive freshwater lake that covered 20,000 square miles and reached depths of 1,000 feet, drastically different from Great Salt Lake’s average depth of 13 feet today.³⁰ Around 14,000 years ago, extreme droughts almost eliminated Lake Bonneville.³¹ From the remnants of Lake Bonneville, the modern Great Salt Lake formed nearly 11,000 years ago. In contrast to the collapse of Lake Bonneville, the aridification of Great Salt Lake is primarily human-caused, with climate change only accounting for about 9% of the lake’s reduction.³²

Although lake levels fluctuate naturally, the water level of Great Salt Lake has seen a consistent downward trend beginning at the latest in the 1870s.³³ Since this time, the lake has already shrunk by two-thirds, with over 50% of the current water loss occurring before 1900.³⁴^,³⁵ Great Salt Lake’s desiccation primarily results from diverting water upstream of Great Salt Lake. Rather than making it to the lake, this diverted water from rivers goes towards agriculture and other uses.³⁶ The dropping water levels have left over 54% of the lakebed exposed.³⁷ Each year since 2020, the lake has lost nearly 1 million acre-feet or close to 326 billion gallons of water.³⁸ An acre-foot is enough water to cover an acre of land in a foot of water.³⁹^,⁴⁰ If this trend continues, the lake could disappear by 2028.⁴¹

Great Salt Lake gets most of its water from the Bear, Weber, and Jordan rivers.⁴² However, these rivers are diverted heavily for agricultural use, and as a result, between 2020 and 2023, Great Salt Lake received less than a third of its natural streamflow.⁴³ Evaporation is the only way for water to leave the lake naturally, and as temperatures increase due to climate change, so will the amount of water leaving the lake.⁴⁴ The combined effects of reduced water entering the lake due to human diversions and increased water leaving the lake due to intensifying evaporation have resulted in record-low lake elevations.⁴⁵ Evaporation also impacts the salinity of the Great Salt Lake. As water evaporates from the lake, the incoming salt and minerals are left behind, resulting in high salinity.⁴⁶ The salinity of Great Salt Lake has ranged from 5–27% in the last 22 years, with a measured salinity of 19% in 2022.⁴⁷^,⁴⁸ This level is 2–9 times saltier than the ocean’s average salinity of 3.5%.⁴⁹

Q: What is aridification, and where else has it occurred in the world?

A: The USDA describes aridification as “a transition of the climate and hydrology of a region to drier conditions.”⁵⁰ In the American West, this phenomenon is often a result of a warmer atmosphere due to climate change. As the atmosphere warms up, its water-holding capacity increases. Additionally, warmer temperatures increase surface evaporation. Combined, these factors dry out soils, reduce river flows, and result in less precipitation.⁵¹ In contrast, the aridification of Great Salt Lake is primarily the result of people diverting water that otherwise would replenish the lake.⁵²

Owens Lake is located about 200 miles north of Los Angeles, California.⁵⁴ In 1913, the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power began piping water from Owens Lake to support the young Los Angeles’ growth. However, within 13 years, Owens Lake dried up entirely.⁵⁵ If the current trajectory of Great Salt Lake is not changed, Great Salt Lake will likely meet the same fate as Owens Lake.⁵⁶

Another example of a failing terminal saline lake is the Aral Sea between Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. The Aral Sea was once the fourth-largest inland sea in the world, but since the 1960s, its volume has shrunk by 14 times its original size, going from the fourth-largest lake in the world to the 41st-largest lake.⁵⁷^,⁵⁸ To put this shrinkage into context, Great Salt Lake has shrunk to be 3.4 times smaller than its size in 1985.⁵⁹ Similar to Owens Lake and Great Salt Lake, the desiccation of the Aral Sea was primarily the result of diverting water for agricultural, industrial, or residential use.⁶⁰ If Great Salt Lake continues to follow the same trends, its results could be similar, if not worse, than the repercussions from Owens Lake or the Aral Sea.

Q: Who is Impacted by the Aridification of Great Salt Lake?

A: While residents of the Wasatch Front have dealt with air pollution since it was first settled, the aridification of the Great Salt Lake has only exacerbated this issue.⁶¹ As the aridification of Great Salt Lake continues, dust from the exposed lakebed will increase the concentration of particle pollutants in the air, further decreasing the air quality. It is estimated that the exposed lakebed is responsible for around 15 large dust storm events each year, a number likely to increase as the Great Salt Lake shrinks.⁶² Additionally, researchers have identified certain “dust hot spots” within the 800 square miles of exposed lakebed that are more likely to create dust storms.⁶³ According to Professor Kevin Perry, one of the researchers who led the study on dust hot spots, based on where the hotspots are located, “everyone along the Wasatch Front (and Tooele Valley) is impacted at certain times.”⁶⁴

The burden of pollution is distributed unevenly among the residents of the Salt Lake Valley. In Salt Lake City specifically, the residents of the west side experience the worst air pollution.⁶⁵ Because it is at a lower elevation and surrounded by refineries, highways, and an airport, the west side of Salt Lake City, which is typically poorer, faces denser air pollution. This disparity is highlighted by the fact that 15.3% of households on the west side have income below the poverty level, compared to 12.8% on the east side.⁶⁶ The reason for the connection between poorer areas of west Salt Lake City and increasing air pollution is explained by Salt Lake City Councilmember Alejandro Puy: "Many of the families on the west side won't have the luxury of escaping [air pollution]. Those with wealth will be able to escape and those that don't, won't."⁶⁷ Because of their financial situation, many people experiencing the worst exposure to air pollution, including dust from Great Salt Lake, cannot afford to leave the area and find somewhere cleaner. The effects of exposure to high concentrations of dust can be severe and will be discussed later in the brief.

Additionally, thousands of jobs, including those in the brine shrimp harvest and winter recreation industries, will be impacted by the desiccation of the Great Salt Lake. Brine shrimp harvest revenue can vary up to 600% based on the quality and quantity of the shrimp, which is not aided by the shrinking lake.⁶⁸ As the lake shrinks, the salinity of the lake increases, which throws off the typical life cycle of the brine shrimp. In 2022, the higher salinity caused the shrimp to release their eggs, known as cysts, during the summer rather than in the winter. As a result, some eggs hatched during the winter, killing the shrimp and reducing the harvest for the next year.⁶⁹ Likewise, winter recreation industries are dependent upon the state of the Great Salt Lake. The winter recreation community relies heavily on the lake effect precipitation for snow, but as the lake shrinks, so will the amount of snowfall.⁷⁰^,⁷¹ This brief will discuss the implications of the declining snowfall later in the Consequences section of the brief.

Contributing Factors

Water Overuse

Agriculture

As of 2024, Utah’s population diverts 5.2 million acre-feet of water from natural waterways for agricultural, residential, and industrial use.⁷² That water is enough to fill about 2.5 million Olympic swimming pools.⁷³ It is estimated that 41% of that water, or 2.1 million acre-feet, is diverted from watersheds that flow into Great Salt Lake.⁷⁴ Between 70–82% of Utah’s total diverted water is used for agriculture, especially irrigation.⁷⁵^,⁷⁶ Of the water used for agriculture, 68% is used to grow alfalfa and hay, both water-heavy crops. To produce a ton of alfalfa takes as much water as two Utah homes typically use in a year.⁷⁷

Hay and alfalfa use the most water and are Utah’s most valuable agricultural crop, bringing in nearly half a billion dollars each year.⁷⁸ However, although hay is at the top of the agricultural profit podium, Utah hay sales only account for 0.2% of Utah’s gross domestic product and use nearly 50% of Utah’s total diverted water.⁷⁹^,⁸⁰ Up to 41% of that water usage can be linked to declining Great Salt Lake elevation, as it is water that would naturally release into the Great Salt Lake.⁸¹

A major source of the agriculture-water problem is legislation. Until 2022, Utah had a “use it or lose it” policy toward water rights. Under this policy, if a farmer did not use all the water they had rights to during a particular year, they were at risk of losing access to that water. While this approach helped Utah to prosper during its developing years, it provided farmers with no incentive to conserve and no means to donate any of their water to protect natural resources.⁸² However, in 2022, the Utah Legislature passed HB33—the “Instream Water Flow Amendments.” This bill made “changes related to change applications for certain uses of water” and gave farmers the option to lease a portion of their water to benefit the environment, which includes Great Salt Lake, without the risk of losing their water rights.⁸³^,⁸⁴ While this legislation was a significant step forward in providing avenues for farmers to contribute to saving Great Salt Lake, there is still a need for further improvements, such as better water monitoring systems to ensure that the water leased to Great Salt Lake makes it there.⁸⁵

Residential

Since at least 2015, Utah has ranked as the state with the second-highest per capita water usage.⁸⁶ A 2020 report indicated that the average residential water usage was 168 gallons per capita per day (GPCD).⁸⁷ Residents of Salt Lake City have been reported as using an average of 240 GPCD.⁸⁸ In contrast, residents of Tucson, Arizona, and Denver, Colorado, average 120 and 142 GPCD, respectively.⁸⁹ It is important to keep in mind that while looking at GPCD can be helpful to establish a baseline to measure, each state measures its water differently, so comparing states is not always accurate.⁹⁰ Nevertheless, Utah’s consistently high residential water usage hinders efforts to delay or reverse the aridification of Great Salt Lake.

One of the reasons why Utahns are willing to use so much water is because it is cheap. An interview with Utah water officials reported that the average residence uses approximately 5,000 gallons per month. Most water districts begin charging excess use fees between 5,000 and 8,000 gallons.⁹¹ However, even with the excess-use fees, Utah has some of the cheapest water in the country. St. George—one of the most arid cities in Utah—has the cheapest water in Utah. This low cost is significant because, in a normal market, the greater water demand combined with less natural supply should result in increased prices. It would make more sense for water to be more expensive in arid areas like St. George because there is less water, and they need more of it. However, if a home used 20,000 gallons of water in a month, a St. George resident would only pay around $56.50.⁹² A Salt Lake City home using the same amount of water would pay $87.39. Looking outside the state, a home in Denver would pay $93.45, and a home in Las Vegas would pay $152.77.⁹³ Water is cheaper in Utah because property taxes subsidize it.⁹⁴ Instead of paying the entire price for water, residents pay an artificially low price, which provides little incentive to conserve.⁹⁵^,⁹⁶ Additionally, because the water is subsidized by property tax, tax-exempt government organizations and non-profit and religious groups can use large amounts of water while paying no more than an individual resident.⁹⁷ More than 80% of Utahns live near the Great Salt Lake along the Wasatch Front and rely on the Weber River and Jordan River watersheds for their water.⁹⁸^,⁹⁹ Because the Weber River and Jordan River are two of Great Salt Lake’s primary tributaries, it is likely that up to 82% of Utah’s residential water, nearly 600,000 acre-feet—or 192 billion gallons—is diverted from entering the Great Salt Lake each year.¹⁰⁰^,¹⁰¹ If the financial implications of residential water consumption fail to align with the environmental and social costs of aridification, it will be challenging to reduce water consumption rates in Utah, exacerbating the drying of the Great Salt Lake.

The Bear River is another river causing major depletions to the Great Salt Lake due to residential needs. Back in 2023, Utahns sought to resurrect the Bear River Development Project originally proposed in the early 1990s, which would take 30% of the average Bear River water flow—primarily to supply more water to the northern Utah residents’ lawns.¹⁰² Because of the fluctuation of the water content in the Bear River, 30% of the average Bear River water flow is sometimes 100% of its content during dry years.¹⁰³ This retraction is approximately 85,600 acre-feet a year, reducing the Great Salt Lake Watershed by an average of 8.5 inches and, in some years, up to 14 inches.¹⁰⁴ To put these figures into context, their equivalent would be exposing another 30 square miles of the lake bed, or an additional 3% of the lake, each year solely because of the Bear River Development Project.¹⁰⁵^,¹⁰⁶

Though the research makes it clear that these diversions are impacting Great Salt Lake’s water levels, the high percentages of water are being diverted partly because of the demand for green lawns in residential areas. The New York Times covered the story of a homeowner in Salt Lake County who stopped watering his lawn to reduce water usage in his community. As a result, his Homeowner’s Association (HOA) threatened to fine him because his lawn was not green enough.¹⁰⁷ This example is one of many similar stories, each increasing the quantity of water not reaching the Great Salt Lake.¹⁰⁸^,¹⁰⁹ Additionally, increasing temperatures require a greater amount of water for lawns and crops, only exacerbating the problem.¹¹⁰

Climate Change

While most of the desiccation of Great Salt Lake can be attributed to anthropomorphic causes, climate change has still had a measurable impact on the lake. Specifically, climate change-related aridification reduces runoff to the Great Salt Lake, and increasing temperatures result in greater evaporation.¹¹¹ Current estimates attribute about 9% of Great Salt Lake’s decline to climate change.¹¹²

The effects of climate change create a vicious cycle where the increased temperatures result in greater evaporation, which reduces the lake's size and lessens the lake’s precipitation effect. Less lake precipitation effect means less snow in the mountains during the winter and less water flowing to the Great Salt Lake as the snow melts.¹¹³ It is estimated that human greenhouse gas emissions are responsible for an increase of 4°F in average temperatures in northern Utah since 1900.¹¹⁴ These increased temperatures are corollary to the desiccation of Great Salt Lake.

In addition to direct contributions to the aridification of Great Salt Lake, climate change contributes indirectly by exacerbating the other contributing factors. Studies have found that residential water use increases as temperatures rise.¹¹⁵ Likewise, higher temperatures and the resulting increased evaporation may require farmers to use more water on their crops to get the same yield.¹¹⁶ One source suggests it may take up to 20% more water now to grow the same crops in Northern Utah than was required 15 years ago.¹¹⁷ This increase in water usage will continue to exacerbate the aridification of Great Salt Lake.

Urban Heat Island

One contributing factor that has a strong correlation to the aridification of Great Salt Lake is the rapid urban growth near Salt Lake City and the resulting Urban Heat Island. According to World Population Review, Utah was considered the fastest-growing US state in 2023.¹¹⁸ From 2010 to 2023, Utah grew 23.88% (around 2.7 million in 2010 to 3.4 million in 2023).¹¹⁹^,¹²⁰ In Utah’s largest county, Salt Lake County (which encompasses Great Salt Lake), the population rose from 455,000 in 1969 to 1,186,257 in 2022. This growth is at a rate of 160.72%.¹²¹ By 2060, Salt Lake County is expected to increase by 1.7 million, and Utah as a whole is expected to increase by 2.2 million people.¹²² Through this major increase in population, more buildings, homes, apartments, and roads are built, creating an urban heat island and contributing to the lake’s aridification.¹²³

Due to rising temperatures, urban areas consume more energy to maintain cooler temperatures. Consequently, anthropogenic heating, including increased usage of air conditioning, emits additional energy into the atmosphere, contributing to further temperature elevation.¹²⁴ Additionally, removed vegetation (also called Urban Tree Canopy) and higher greenhouse gas emissions from vehicles in big cities increase the urban heat island effect.¹²⁵^,¹²⁶^,¹²⁷ One study found Salt Lake City to be one of the top three urban heat island in the United States.¹²⁸ In the 1990s, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) used a thermal sensor to track the temperature. The temperature was about 160°F (71°C) on the rooftops in Salt Lake City. In vegetated areas outside the main city, the temperature was between 85–96°F (29–36°C).¹²⁹ Salt Lake County’s rapid population growth and increased urban development have resulted in increased temperatures due to the urban heat island effect. The increased temperature impacts the surrounding climate, including the aridification of the Great Salt Lake.¹³⁰ The temperature increase is one of the leading contributors to the shrinking of the Great Salt Lake. As the urban heat island effect causes a rise in local temperatures, snowpack in the area evaporates instead of turning into liquid and running into rivers to fill the Great Salt Lake.¹³¹^,¹³²^,¹³³

Consequences

Because the issue is ongoing, there is not yet a large body of published research on the negative effects resulting directly from the desiccation of the Great Salt Lake. Consequently, this brief will look at similar lake aridification events, primarily the collapse of the Aral Sea. Like the Great Salt Lake, the Aral Sea is a terminal saline lake that collapsed in large part due to agricultural water diversions. The area is still suffering from the effects of lakebed dust, and several studies have studied its health impacts.

Health Impacts from Dust

As the Great Salt Lake continues to aridify, more of the lakebed will be exposed and swept up into the air as dust particles and pollution levels increase.¹³⁴ This particulate matter is harmful to humans. According to the United States EPA, particulate matter smaller than 10 micrometers (PM10) poses the greatest threat to human health as it can get deep within the lungs and even into the bloodstream.¹³⁵ Air pollution—estimated to contribute to 1 in 6 deaths globally—is linked to numerous diseases such as chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and aggravated asthma; air pollution has also been shown to increase the risk of heart attacks and strokes.¹³⁶^,¹³⁷ Between 2016 and 2018, a professor from The University of Utah traversed the exposed lakebed (or playa) by bike to examine the composition of the soil and discover where dust “hot spots”—or places dust is most likely to come from—are located.¹³⁸ Dust “hotspots” were identified all around the lake (see the graphic for details). While the study did discover high levels of heavy metals like arsenic in the soil, there has not been sufficient monitoring to determine how the toxic elements in the dust have impacted or will impact those living around the Great Salt Lake.¹³⁹

Between 2016 and 2018, a professor from The University of Utah traversed the exposed lakebed (or playa) by bike to examine the composition of the soil and discover where dust “hot spots”—or places dust is most likely to come from—are located.¹³⁸ Dust “hotspots” were identified all around the lake (see the graphic for details). While the study did discover high levels of heavy metals like arsenic in the soil, there has not been sufficient monitoring to determine how the toxic elements in the dust have impacted or will impact those living around the Great Salt Lake.¹³⁹

The desiccation of the Aral Sea is an example of what could happen if the Great Salt Lake is not saved. Just like the Great Salt Lake, the exposed lakebed of the Aral Sea has become the source of massive toxic dust storms, which likely contribute to increased heart and kidney disease, growth retardation among children, as well as anemia and hypercalciuria.¹⁴⁰

Respiratory Illness

While there has been a lack of studies that attempt to link Great Salt Lake dust pollution to health problems, studies have already seen the impacts of existing air pollution around the Great Salt Lake. Residents of West Salt Lake City—the section of Salt Lake City with the worst air quality—have a 10-year lower life expectancy than the rest of Salt Lake City, 2–3 years of which can be attributed to air pollution.¹⁴¹^,¹⁴² One resident said, “It irritates the eyes and gives me sinus infections. It is hard to be trapped in the valley.” Additionally, on poor air quality days, children living on the west side are 2–3 times more likely to miss school than children living on the east side of the city.¹⁴⁴ Absenteeism due to poor air quality is estimated to cost Utah schools at least $1 million a year.¹⁴⁵ Additionally, as of 2020, on days with unhealthy air quality, the Wasatch Front saw a 40% increase in emergency room visits.¹⁴⁶ Other consequences of poor air quality include an estimated 30,000 DALYs (Disability-adjusted life year) lost in Utah each year. This loss is the equivalent of 6,000 premature deaths each year.¹⁴⁷ If the Great Salt Lake is allowed to continue to shrink, dust storms will become more frequent, and the health consequences will likely grow more severe.

The human respiratory system responds to dust differently depending on where the particles settle. Dust could settle in the nose, trachea, or bronchi and cause rhinitis or bronchitis.¹⁴⁸ However, if the concentration and exposure of dust are high enough, the dust can get past the body’s defenses and collect in the lung tissues, injuring the lungs.¹⁴⁹ Since the lakebed of Great Salt Lake contains heavy metals such as arsenic, lead, and mercury, it is important to mitigate the diffusion of dust.¹⁵⁰^,¹⁵¹ Studies around the Aral Sea found that air pollution from toxic dust storms has increased lung respiratory illnesses like bronchitis, bronchial asthma, and tuberculosis.¹⁵²^,¹⁵³ There also seems to be a correlation between dust exposure and other health problems.¹⁵⁴

Maternal and Reproductive Health

Two of the most vulnerable populations to dust-related health problems are pregnant women and children.¹⁵⁵ As it is common for a woman’s immune system to weaken while pregnant, they are more susceptible to severe complications from pollution.¹⁵⁶ According to one crossover study in Utah, doctors found an association between acute exposure to air pollution and a 16% increase in spontaneous pregnancy loss.¹⁵⁷ Additionally, the fetus is especially susceptible to environmental pollutants and their effects as it is developing.¹⁵⁸ Children exposed to air pollution during their first 1,000 days may be more susceptible to long-term health conditions. Air pollution may also contribute to low birth weight, premature birth, childhood asthma, and poor immune system and organ development.¹⁵⁹ Exposure to PM2.5 may also be connected with impaired childhood growth, which presents concerns with physical development and may also be related to reduced cognitive development.¹⁶⁰

We can again look to the Aral Sea to see examples of toxic dust from a dying saline lake impacting the health of those who live near it. One of the greatest health concerns for the Aral Sea region, especially for pregnant women who live in the area, is anemia.¹⁶¹ While other environmental factors in the Aral Sea region could impact the rates of anemia—such as nutritional deficiency—studies have found an association between long-term exposure to air pollution and the risk of developing anemia.¹⁶²^,¹⁶³ According to the Mayo Clinic, anemia is “a problem of not having enough healthy red blood cells or hemoglobin to carry oxygen to the body's tissues.”¹⁶⁴ This condition can result in fatigue, weakness, and shortness of breath.¹⁶⁵ Nearly 70% of women in Karakalpakstan (near the Aral Sea) suffer from extreme anemia by their third trimester and experience complications such as hemorrhages.¹⁶⁶ While there have not been studies looking at air pollution and anemia rates around Great Salt Lake, because of the area’s high levels of air pollution, rates of anemia may increase if the aridification of Great Salt Lake continues.

Mental Health

As Utah already suffers from some of the worst winter air pollution in the country, becoming worse by the drying of the Great Salt Lake, more biostatisticians, doctors, and psychiatrists are studying the effects of air pollution on mental health.¹⁶⁷^,¹⁶⁸ Though causation has not been proved, many studies indicate a strong correlation between particulate matter and suicide.¹⁶⁹ One study took data from 4,341 suicide deaths in Korea and compared each death to the daily average PM concentrations 0–7 days before suicide. It was found that there was up to a 10.1% increase in the risk of death by suicide related to increased exposure to PM2.5 and a 9% increased risk related to an increase in PM10.¹⁷⁰ This same group expanded their studies to 28,670 cases in Korea after contradictory studies. They found similar results the second time.¹⁷¹ After these studies were done, Utah researchers wanted to test the same hypothesis from cases in Utah. They observed a sample of 1,546 completed suicides from 2000–2010 and the PM2.5 and nitrogen dioxide levels 2–3 days before the completed attempts. The same results were found—days with higher levels of PM2.5 and nitrogen dioxide increased the risk of suicide.¹⁷² Therefore, it can be assumed that as more dust is picked up from the Great Salt Lake, increasing the PM2.5 in Utah’s air, it is likely this increase could lead to a rise in the number of suicides in Utah. Researchers have also indicated that those who already experience the effects of mental illness, especially depression, can experience more adverse effects by worsening air pollution.¹⁷³

Economic Downfall

In 2019, the Great Salt Lake Advisory Council published a report estimating that the costs of the Great Salt Lake drying due to loss of mineral extraction, landscape mitigation costs, loss of lake recreation and economic value, loss of brine shrimp, health costs, and impacts to ski resorts could total up to be as much as $2.17 billion per year.¹⁷⁴ Over 20 years, these costs could be as much as $25.4 billion to $32.6 billion.¹⁷⁵ To put these figures into context, the population count in Utah in 2022 was 3.38 million.¹⁷⁶ To pay off even one year of these costs would require each Utah household to pay the state nearly an additional $2,000 a year.¹⁷⁷^,¹⁷⁸ Considering that the average tax rate in Utah is 4.75% of the median salary of $79,133, this additional cost would add another 2.5% of their income being allocated towards state taxes, increasing their tax rate by 53%.¹⁷⁹^,¹⁸⁰^,¹⁸¹^,¹⁸²

In addition to increased costs, it is estimated that the decline in the water levels at the Great Salt Lake could result in over 6,500 jobs lost, the majority of which stem from a loss of mineral extraction output. The Great Salt Lake has dedicated over 100,000 acres of the Great Salt Lake for mineral extraction divided into solar evaporation ponds.¹⁸³ As the Great Salt Lake continues to dry up, the output from mineral extraction decreases.¹⁸⁴ As one of the United States’ main providers of minerals, especially magnesium, this decline could potentially lead to significant economic consequences such as a reduction in employment, from roughly 7,700 jobs to approximately 2,330 jobs and a loss of over $1.3 billion.¹⁸⁵^,¹⁸⁶^,¹⁸⁷^,¹⁸⁸ A Other jobs lost as a result of the Great Salt Lake drying up would be in lake recreation and the brine shrimp industry.¹⁸⁹

Experts estimate that ski resort spending will also decrease as the water levels at the Great Salt Lake worsen. As of 2024, Utah’s ski resorts contribute 20,000 jobs and $1.2 billion to Utah’s economy yearly. It is estimated that the lake elongates Utah’s ski season by 5–7 weeks because the lake generates 5–10% of Utah’s “famous” snow.¹⁹⁰ However, as the Great Salt Lake continues to dry up, the annual snowpack is estimated to decrease 5%–8%, causing ski resorts to close a week earlier than planned.¹⁹¹ This reduction amounts to up to $9.6 million in lost recreation revenue per year.¹⁹² Other non-quantified costs estimated due to dust include increased costs in agriculture, airport operations disruptions, reduced attraction to the state as a result of the ski resort decline or poor air quality, and wildfire management costs due to drier winters from the loss of lake precipitation effect.¹⁹³

Practices

Great Salt Lake Strike Team

There is no single approach that can save Great Salt Lake. The variety of contributing factors and potential consequences requires a systematic, data-driven approach to address each of them.¹⁹⁴ The Great Salt Lake Strike Team is one organization attempting to bring awareness to the layers of necessary solutions. The purpose of the Great Salt Lake Strike Team is to “provide timely, relevant, and high-quality data and research that help decision-makers make informed decisions about Great Salt Lake.”¹⁹⁵ The Great Salt Lake Strike Team is unique in that it serves as the primary point of contact for access to the experts at Utah’s research universities. Specifically, the Strike Team includes researchers from Utah State University and the University of Utah, as well as State officials and other experts.¹⁹⁶ Rather than advocate for specific policies, the Strike Team acts in an advisory role by providing impartial and informed solutions for the state to decide on.

The Great Salt Lake Strike Team was formed in the fall of 2022. Around that time, Great Salt Lake reached some of the lowest levels in recorded history, which spiked its salinity. In response, the group of experts that became the Strike Team came together to find solutions and motivate state-level action to save the Great Salt Lake.

In their 2023 Policy Assessment Executive Summary, the Great Salt Lake Strike Team outlined six major insights and recommendations. The first was an explanation for the record low lake elevation. The Strike Team’s research found that natural and human consumptive use accounted for 67–73% of the low lake level.¹⁹⁷ The second insight was on declining inflow. The team found that while the net water supply from the mountains has not seen a long-term trend in any direction, inflow to the lake is decreasing. This trend emphasizes the first point of greater depletion by human systems.¹⁹⁸ The Strike Team’s third insight presented three potential intervention categories: conservation, new water, and engineering solutions. The Strike Team does not necessarily endorse any of these categories as the best or even viable solutions; however, it recognizes these as potential options or as options that have been the subject of public discussion.¹⁹⁹ The fourth item is a recommendation to commit conserved water to Great Salt Lake. Doing so will be critical in enabling other potential policies to function correctly.²⁰⁰ Fifth is a recommendation for policymakers to establish a target lake elevation range. The initial suggested range for optimal lake health is 4198 to 4205 feet. In contrast, Great Salt Lake ranged from 4191 to 4195 feet between April 2023 and April 2024, 4188 to 4191 feet between April 2022 and April 2023, and 4191 to 4196 feet between April 2021 and April 2022.²⁰¹ The median lake level between 1990 and 2024 is 4196 feet.²⁰² Sixth and finally, the report suggests an awareness of future water availability. While there is the possibility for slight increases in expected precipitation, it will likely be overshadowed by increased temperature and evaporation. With these challenges in mind, the Strike Team’s report recommends that policymakers commit to refilling Great Salt Lake as soon as possible.²⁰³

Impact

In the year since this report was released, Great Salt Lake saw significant increases in lake level with a net gain of 3.5 feet.²⁰⁴ However, most of the increase was due to the significant 2023 water year and emergency measures like raising the adaptive management berm, which separates the north and south arms of the lake.²⁰⁵ While it is not clear to what extent the Great Salt Lake Strike Team contributed to the net gain, the Utah Division of Water Resources performed actions, such as the creation of educational resources at the request of the Strike Team.²⁰⁶ Although these actions are only a small step, they show that the Great Salt Lake Strike Team can successfully influence important policy-related entities to take action toward saving the Great Salt Lake.

Gaps

Since the Great Salt Lake Strike Team’s primary focus is to be an advisor to policymakers, most of their potential impact depends on the policymakers themselves. Due to the newness of the organization and a lack of impact reporting, it is difficult to determine to what extent the Strike Team has influenced legislators regarding Great Salt Lake. In their January 2024 report, the Great Salt Lake Strike Team identified several of their gaps, taking the following courses of action: identifying tradeoffs between human, ecological, and economic health; ensuring conserved water makes it to the lake; developing a more comprehensive measuring network and data models; identifying short, medium, and long term solutions; and garnering increased support from state leaders.²⁰⁷

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Preferred Citation: Thompson, David. “The Aridification of the Great Salt Lake.” Ballard Brief. June 2024. www.ballardbrief.byu.edu.

Viewpoints published by Ballard Brief are not necessarily endorsed by BYU or The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints

Footnotes

United States

David Thompson

David is a software engineer with a passion for the great outdoors. His connection to the water has grown out of 5 seasons working as a whitewater river guide, which allowed him to experience the importance of water to people and the environment. With talents in landscape photography and piano performance, David finds joy in using a variety of mediums to bring specific experiences to others that help them feel and see the world differently as a result.